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Why the Eye Test Fails in College Football Rankings | Weekly Analysis
Another week in college football where the top teams suffered stunning upsets proves that the eye test just doesn’t work. If you are new to this column or college football, the Associated Press puts out a college football poll each week with votes by writers and other media members who cover the game on a regular basis. The Coaches Poll is similar with votes coming from coaches in college football or by whomever the coach designates to do their poll for them.
These voters know so much about college football they are able to use what is called “the eye test”. They know a team is good because they saw them, because they know the recruiting rankings, because they know the coaching staff, because they’ve seen the schedule and played it all out in their own heads. It creates great bias, and even more so when voters don’t want to admit they are wrong. Penn State has been a top 10 team all season according to these experts, yet the Nittany Lions had played no one with a pulse. In their first contest against a team with a pulse, they lost in overtime to Oregon. These voters saw a good team, and did not want to be wrong, so Penn State only dropped to 7. Penn State followed that with a home loss to previously winless UCLA. No eye test would tell you Penn State was about to lose to UCLA.
No eye test would tell you the Florida Gators were about to lay the wood to Texas in the Swamp Saturday either. Fans finally got the performance out of quarterback DJ Lagway they hoped for all season, and the debut of freshman WR Dallas Wilson was electric. Has Billy Napier saved his job again? I don’t think that’s happened yet. The remaining Florida schedule is brutal, and expectations from fans were high going into the season. He’s safe for now but check back in November.
Most ranking services and voters have Ohio State number one this week, but not me. Why should the Buckeyes be ranked as the best? Again, voters are using the eye test and basing their opinions on the victory over Texas in week one. Clearly, Texas is struggling after losing to a then 1-3 Florida team. It’s lazy and unfair to a team that has done more than any other in this season to date. Miami put a whipping on Florida State in Tallahassee to move to 5-0, and it was not as close as the final score would indicate. The Hurricanes are my number one team this week because they have earned it on the field with victories over Notre Dame, Florida, USF, and Florida State. That’s far better than what Ohio State has done so far. Reward teams for what they actually do, not what you think about their talent level.
As for Florida State, when you look at the ACC standings, OUCH! It will be difficult for them to get to the ACC Championship now having lost to undefeated Miami and not facing undefeated Georgia Tech in the regular season. Coming into the year, I was not sure what Florida State would be trying to rebound from a 2-10 season in 2024. It appears they are a work in progress.
TOP 25 FOR THE WEEK OF OCTOBER 6TH
- MIAMI (5-0) Best combination of wins in the nation
- OHIO STATE (5-0) Keeping them here because they beat Minnesota so badly
- OKLAHOMA (5-0) Move up because Penn State loss hurts Oregon
- OLE MISS (5-0) LSU is their signature win
- OREGON (5-0) I still think they are as good as anyone, but these rankings are not about what I think
- TEXAS A&M (5-0) Convincingly beat a fairly good Mississippi State team, plus ND and Auburn
- INDIANA (5-0) Get Oregon next. Winner to be in top 5
- TEXAS TECH (5-0) Beat previously undefeated Houston. Utah is best win
- MISSOURI (5-0) The easy part of schedule is over, the rest is SEC brutal
- ALABAMA (4-1) Wins over Vandy, UGA. Only loss week 1 at Florida State
- GEORGIA TECH (5-0) Wins just not that good, plus struggled with Wake Forest
- GEORGIA (4-1) Handled a Kentucky team I don’t have a high opinion of
- TENNESSEE (4-1) Only loss is in OT to Georgia, but wins not great
- LSU (4-1) Close loss to Ole Miss, beat Clemson and Florida
- VIRGINIA (4-1) Loss was to NC State, but did beat FSU and Louisville
- MICHIGAN (4-1) Excited to see them against USC this week
- CINCINNATI (4-1) Close loss in week 1 to Nebraska, only team to beat Iowa State
- ILLINOIS (4-1) Wins over Duke and USC, but crushed by Indiana
- VANDERBILT (5-1) Loss to Bama, did win at S. Carolina and Va Tech
- USF (4-1) On strength of Boise and Florida wins
- IOWA STATE (5-1) Too many mistakes at Cincinnati
- SOUTHERN CAL (4-1) No great wins, but only loss by 2 at Illinois
- BYU (5-0) Wins are not good but no losses. We will learn the next two weeks at Arizona and versus Utah
- ARIZONA STATE (4-1) Have beaten Baylor and TCU
- MEMPHIS (6-0) Yay for first bowl eligible team. Did beat SEC’s Arkansas
Mike Synan
News | Sports | Politics
- After two decades in news and politics, Mike Synan is returning to his roots to write Sports as “The Sportsaholic”. Mike hosted a talk show for 6 years on WDBO after Magic home games called “Magic Til Midnight”, and spent years working as an in-game correspondent for both ESPN and Fox Sports Radio. His column “Synan Says” has appeared on both www.wdbo.com and www.floridadaily.com. He has a BS in Political Science from Clemson University. You can reach him at msynan@sportsmail.com
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